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is the DOW going to burst at some point?

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Old 04-20-2016, 01:47 AM
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damn NUGT is at 89? last time you posted it was at 60


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Old 04-20-2016, 11:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Mizouse View Post
damn NUGT is at 89? last time you posted it was at 60


NUGT has had its ups and downs, but the trend is certainly up as the Dollar weakens and Gold/Silver strengthen. I'm not sure what happened at 11:30pst today with the price of gold, but NUGT dropped like a rock at that time after being up almost 6 points and pushing $96. It closed off its lows for the day at 84.74.

The interesting thing about the miners and NUGT in particular is its price relative to the price of gold. Back in May when I was beginning some small positions in NUGT, gold was $1200 and NUGT was 120. Gold is now 1245 while NUGT is at 84- seems like there is still some catching up to do for NUGT. It's this price imbalance that keeps me holding onto positions that have 250% gains for the year- plus I want my long-term capital gains.
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Old 04-21-2016, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by LaCostaRacer View Post
NUGT has had its ups and downs, but the trend is certainly up as the Dollar weakens and Gold/Silver strengthen. I'm not sure what happened at 11:30pst today with the price of gold, but NUGT dropped like a rock at that time after being up almost 6 points and pushing $96. It closed off its lows for the day at 84.74.

The interesting thing about the miners and NUGT in particular is its price relative to the price of gold. Back in May when I was beginning some small positions in NUGT, gold was $1200 and NUGT was 120. Gold is now 1245 while NUGT is at 84- seems like there is still some catching up to do for NUGT. It's this price imbalance that keeps me holding onto positions that have 250% gains for the year- plus I want my long-term capital gains.
30 mins before the Euro markets open, crazy things also tend to happen 30 mins before they (euros) close and 30 mins before the us markets close, hmmmmmmmmmmm.............
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Old 04-21-2016, 09:36 PM
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Markets can be volatile in last hour- just wasn't sure what happened then because it was well after the European close and no news hit the wire. The only news I heard a couple days ago was some interesting put option activity on the gold miners that was betting miners were going down. I have listened to Goldman Sachs say this stuff for a while and enjoy seeing gold go up and knowing they are losing their shirts on shorting it. As the world turns...
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Old 04-29-2016, 10:20 PM
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Dow: 17,773.6
Gold 1294.90
Dow/Gold: 13.73
USD: 93.03
NUGT: 118.80

The Dow attempted to test the 2015 high of 18,351 and seems to have failed its attempt. The Dow is now in a down trend with 17,450 the nearest and best support level. If Dow goes below that, the next support is 17,000 - 16,600. The SP500 looks closer to support levels of 2040 for nearest level with 2000 and 1970 being firmer support.

We have had only one week that had a 99 point or less change with all the other weeks being 100 point or more changes. This means we have had lots of volatility in 2016. We experienced 15 < 100 point Dow weeks in 2015 while there has been just one in 2016 and we're 1/3 through the year. 2015 had about six by this time.

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Old 04-30-2016, 12:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Mizouse View Post
damn NUGT is at 89? last time you posted it was at 60


Originally Posted by LaCostaRacer View Post
Dow: 17,773.6
Gold 1294.90
Dow/Gold: 13.73
USD: 93.03
NUGT: 118.80
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Old 04-30-2016, 12:35 PM
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Spelling

So, I take that my question was good. This must be one of the great mysteries.
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Old 04-30-2016, 08:38 PM
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^Not sure what the question was?

NUGT has made an impressive run and should continue to appreciate as the US Dollar weakens like it has this year. My hunch is that the USD will break 90 on the downside this year.

People looking to buy NUGT may want to wait for a pullback. This stock has gone up rapidly and it would be normal to see a drop back to 100 in the next couple of weeks. I revised my mid term price target to $200 so there is more left in this trade.
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Old 04-30-2016, 09:19 PM
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Originally Posted by LaCostaRacer View Post
^Not sure what the question was?

NUGT has made an impressive run and should continue to appreciate as the US Dollar weakens like it has this year. My hunch is that the USD will break 90 on the downside this year.

People looking to buy NUGT may want to wait for a pullback. This stock has gone up rapidly and it would be normal to see a drop back to 100 in the next couple of weeks. I revised my mid term price target to $200 so there is more left in this trade.
Sorry thats a directly result of how confusing the mobile version of answering a thread is... i reply to the wrong post in trying to reply to another one... smh
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Old 05-18-2016, 01:37 PM
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Dow down over 100 points on announcement.





Fed signals interest rate hike firmly on the table for June

Fed signals interest rate hike firmly on the table for June

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates in June if economic data points to stronger second-quarter growth as well as firming inflation and employment, according to minutes from the U.S. central bank's April policy meeting released on Wednesday.

That view, expressed by most Fed policymakers at the last policy meeting, suggests the central bank is much closer to lifting rates again than Wall Street expects.

Prices for futures contracts on the Fed's benchmark overnight lending rate on Wednesday implied that investors only saw a 19 percent chance of a rate increase next month.

But members of the Fed's policy-setting committee said recent economic data made them more confident inflation was rising toward their 2 percent target and that they were less concerned about a global economic slowdown, according to the minutes from the April 26-27 meeting.

"Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor markets continued to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the committee's 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June," according to the minutes.

Some policymakers were wary about a slowdown in U.S. economic growth during the first quarter, when gross domestic product expanded at a two-year low of 0.5 percent. But others argued that ongoing robust job growth suggested the economy was still on track and the growth data could be flawed.

"Most pointed to the steady improvement in the labor market as an indicator that the underlying pace of economic activity had likely not deteriorated," according to the minutes.

Some policymakers said they were concerned financial markets could be roiled by a possible British exit from the European Union in a vote next month or by China's exchange rate policies.

At its April meeting, the Fed kept its target overnight interest rate in a range of 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. The Fed hiked rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade.
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Old 05-18-2016, 03:07 PM
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Old 05-18-2016, 10:17 PM
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meh...
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Old 05-19-2016, 09:08 PM
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Dow: 17,435.4
Gold 1255.70
Dow/Gold: 13.88
USD: 95.29
NUGT: 88.79

Lots of weasel words in the Fed statement. They said similar things last year as well. I really doubt they will raise rates before the Brexit decision and Q2 GDP report. The problem for the Fed will be timing because the window for a rate increase before election is quickly closing. I think July will be last opportunity for them to raise rates.

For those of you following NUGT, you had a screaming opportunity today to get on that bandwagon when it touched 76 today. I added some shares on this weakness and it closed at 88.79- gold is likely to go up regardless of Fed decision on rates and today was a good example of how that works.

I also got my general SELL signal on the market yesterday. This is when I lighten long positions and go short. DXD looks like best choice for me and I added positions today.
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Old 05-19-2016, 10:56 PM
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i picked up some NUGT this AM at 83
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Old 05-20-2016, 07:46 PM
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^ You got in at a good price. Today's trade looks very promising: NUGT got hammered in beginning of day and closed slightly higher at 89.40 with reasonable volume. I wish the Fed would simply raise rates and not just talk about it. NUGT is in a bull market but that's not to say it can't get hammered from time to time.

Here's a link with some analysis about gold after interest rate hikes. In short gold goes up and nugt will go up even higher and faster.
Fed Funds Rate Hike: Another Empty Threat? | Investment Research Dynamics

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Old 05-24-2016, 02:07 PM
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i picked up some NUGT this AM at 83
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Old 05-24-2016, 11:57 PM
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Dow: 17,706.1
Gold 1227.20
Dow/Gold: 14.42
USD: 95.58
NUGT: 72.40

^ The last couple of days have been harsh for NUGT, but good for the Dow. Today's new housing purchase contract info was positive and perhaps the markets responded well to that possibly.

Gold and NUGT have dropped significantly these last couple of days with the prospects of a June interest rate hike from the Fed in a couple of weeks. For those long, it's days like today that make you earn your profits. In bull markets the drops are always impressive as stocks climb that wall of worry.

I bought more shares on Monday and Tuesday at following levels: 82.42, 81.06, 79.12, 74.11, and 73.66. My holdings increased by 1/7 the last couple days. Gold is near a support level at 1225 that has been tested 4 times this year- the other 1200 support level has also been tested. The last time rates increased gold went up a month later when the dusts settles. I had similar scared feelings when I was in my NUGT positions at 22 and it dropped to 17 in January after the surprise rate increase.

Remember the Fed talked about 4 rate increases in 2016, so they talk a lot and do less. I really doubt a June increase but am wishing for one so they get it over with. The surprise I have is why the Dow/Nasdaq/SP500 are up with this rate increase in the future- those indices did not like the last one much in January and there is no reason to think that they will like the next one either.

The dow/gold ratio is near the highs in mid April and gold exploded to the upside a couple weeks later. These downward movements will shake out some folks and this common. There is good support for NUGT at 70 and it's near those levels now.

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Old 06-23-2016, 10:55 PM
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tomorrow
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Old 06-23-2016, 11:37 PM
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Buy the dip!


Dow futures : -627.00
S&P futures : -98.50
Nasdaq futures : -209.50


US and UK futures clobbered as rolling Brexit results frighten investors

Futures imply Dow open down 650 points as Brexit result frightens investors

U.S. stock index futures dipped sharply lower Thursday evening ET as results from the British referendum continued to roll in.

Dow Jones futures briefly saw an implied open down more than 400 points. After paring those losses briefly, futures then broke below an implied open down 650 around 11:50 p.m. ET (4:50 a.m. London time).

The FTSE futures also extended their losses, pointing to a roughly 6 percent fall at the U.K. stock market open.

Britons voted Thursday on whether to leave the European Union. Polls closed at 5 p.m. ET and the highly anticipated results are expected overnight.


Brexit set for victory: ITV News

Latest count puts UK on course for Brexit

Remain: 48.2%
Leave: 51.8%

In a dramatic turn that polls did not predict and which markets failed to price in, the United Kingdom is on course to leave the European Union, according to the latest predictions.

Major U.K. broadcasters including ITN, Sky and the BBC have all called the result for the leave camp, throwing markets around the world into turmoil and prompting sterling to hit its lowest level since 1985. The ramifications of the result, although not yet officially announced, are already reverberating across the U.K., European Union and wider political and economic establishment.

European markets are expected to open dramatically lower and EU leaders are expected to hold a crisis meeting.
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Old 06-24-2016, 12:46 AM
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I wouldn't buy this dip and won't be selling either. Just had a text dialog with a broker who was hot to sell my XBI holdings- not a great idea tomorrow- he should have sold weeks ago instead. Anyway, the markets are going to be very rocky on Friday and weeks to come. I would wait a few weeks and anticipate that the Fed will come to the rescue with a new round of QE- that's when I might be buying.

Meanwhile, I'll be anticipating making record paper profits on Friday- NUGT is going to SOAR on Friday along with GLD, SLV, and DXD holdings.

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Old 06-24-2016, 01:34 AM
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Wow, I guess immigration concerns tipped the scales. When the pre- and exit-pols indicated a "stay" vote, I thought maybe long term, common economic sense had come to the rescue. Oh well, this will be interesting to watch....

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Old 06-24-2016, 03:08 PM
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Dow : 17,400.34 - 610.73 (-3.39%)
S&P 500 : 2,037.31 - 76.01 (-3.60%)
NASDAQ : 4,707.98 - 202.06 (-4.12%)
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Old 06-24-2016, 04:20 PM
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If you bought when the market opened, you'd have made some money. But that would take some major balls if you ask me.
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Old 06-24-2016, 05:33 PM
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Meh, ~3.5% is nothing. We'll have to wait and see if that's all. Hell, no one has a clue what this even means for any part of the global economy. It's just a panicked reaction so far....
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Old 06-24-2016, 06:48 PM
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Dow: 17,400.8
Gold 1322.40
Dow/Gold: 13.16
USD: 95.63
NUGT: 113.55

I was anticipating a small rally from lows once the market closed but that did not happen today since the market closed near the lows of the day. I wound up buying some UWTI today @ 31.10 on weakness and expect that to be a profitable trade in 6 months. Monday could be down with the people stressing what to do over the weekend. I suspect Tuesday might be a little up and Wednesday down. The important thing will be seeing how the market closes next Friday.

With the gold, silver, and short positions active, I had my 2nd best trading day for the year today.
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Old 06-25-2016, 07:34 PM
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I suspect we are going to be stuck in the mud for at least 2 years now. Might as well go buy that Lambo.
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Old 06-29-2016, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted by AZuser View Post
Buy the dip!
Dow @ 17,694.68 - Up 284.96 (1.64%)
S&P 500 @ 2,070.77 - Up 34.68 (1.70%)
Nasdaq @ 4,779.25 - Up 87.38 (1.86%)


All 3 indices up about 50% between Thursday's close and Friday's bottom, and all 3 up about 66% between Thursday's close and Monday's bottom.
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Old 06-29-2016, 04:06 PM
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I picked up a few stocks today, so stocks are gonna tank tomorrow
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Old 07-11-2016, 12:55 PM
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Dow and S&P hit new all time highs today.

Can we get another EU country exit?
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Old 07-11-2016, 05:16 PM
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Grexit anyone?
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Old 07-11-2016, 10:52 PM
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Dow: 18,226.9
Gold 1356
Dow/Gold: 13.44
USD: 96.59
NUGT: 168.97

The last couple of trading weeks has certainly helped the markets- no doubt. I think the brexit took any near term Fed rate hikes off the table until after the election and that has caused the markets to pop. Last Friday's jobs report was a factor too but not if you really dig into the report and see what's happening: lots of part time jobs and most jobs are going to the 55+ age group- not a great story for the health of the market. The 55+ types going back to work and poaching jobs from the younger people who really should be working- explains why a supposedly good jobs report caused a increase in unemployment rate.

While it's nice to see the Dow get back above where it was trading, the real money is being made in other areas of the market. The Dow is up 4.6% YTD and SP500 only 4.55%- this is just tracking an average 9-10% gain year and nothing to boast about. Even a boring stock like HSY has done better than that and pays a decent dividend to boot.

With all this said, I got a BULL alert signal on the general market today- the brexit and its volatility made the last BEAR alert a bad indicator and was wrong by 700 dow points of movement. This alert has had big problems in 2016 and has been wrong 4 out of 5 times- I'm using it as a contrary indicator this time for my trading, so I'm not going all in on general market stocks. My gold stocks are paying the bills and more this year.

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Old 09-09-2016, 01:05 PM
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Haven't had one of these days in a while.

DOW = 18,178.55 : $301.36 (-1.63%)
S&P = 2,139.93 : $41.37 (-1.90%)
Nasdaq = 5,148.56 : $110.92 (-2.11%)
VIX = $16.18 : $3.67 (29.34%)
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Old 09-21-2016, 01:07 PM
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No September rate hike.

Buy buy buy!!!
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Old 11-03-2016, 05:58 PM
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<--Thinks correction coming.
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Old 11-03-2016, 11:16 PM
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Dow: 17,930.67
Gold 1303.30
Dow/Gold: 13.75
USD: 97.20
NUGT: 15.39

If Trump is elected there will be a shock with the market. At this point we have had 6 consecutive down Dow days and 8 down SP500 days. 17,750 is next support level for the Dow. We hit a double-bottom for the Dow today with point & figure which also shows a 17,750 support level. If that breaks, then 17,000 is next support level.
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Old 11-03-2016, 11:34 PM
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Certainly feels like a correction, bearish technicals, but my gut says not quite yet. VIX has never had this many green days, I'm betting on a short rally then more significant correction. We shall see...
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Old 11-07-2016, 12:14 PM
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Rally on a presidential candidate not going to jail.. That's a new one, but I like it! I'm cash now, who knows what's next...
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Old 11-22-2016, 03:05 PM
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First close over 19,000!
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Old 11-22-2016, 03:26 PM
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Must be nice
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Old 11-25-2016, 12:29 PM
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Looks like the market is going to ride the Trump train into the end of the year. Going to be a scary place to be if he hasn't done anything in first 100 days of his presidency.
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Quick Reply: is the DOW going to burst at some point?


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